Bitcoin is trading around $44,200 in early January 2024, driven by unprecedented anticipation: the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must rule by January 10 on no fewer than 11 spot Bitcoin ETF applications, including those from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco. Why this event is structurally different Since 2013, the SEC has rejected all spot Bitcoin ETF applications, citing market manipulation risks. This ended on August 29, 2023, when a federal court ordered the SEC to reconsider its Grayscale decision. That ruling changed the legal framework. What market data shows Open interest in CME Bitcoin Futures hit a record $5.4 billion at end-December 2023, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, GBTC is trading at only a 5% discount to NAV, versus 45% in December 2022 — a strong signal the market is pricing in ETF approval. What this data does not tell us It does not tell us Bitcoin will rise after approval. Markets have a historical tendency to sell the news after buying the rumour.