Bitcoin reached $41,800 — fully erasing the losses from the FTX collapse of November 2022. This is the first time since April 2022 that Bitcoin has exceeded $40,000. The market is entering a phase of moderate euphoria driven by ETF and halving anticipation.
One year of recovery
In exactly 13 months, Bitcoin went from $15,500 (November 2022) to $41,800 (+170%). This recovery has been gradual and structured: absence of massive liquidations, continuous long-term holder accumulation, and growing institutional support via CME futures.
The MVRV ratio crosses back above 2.0
According to Glassnode, the MVRV reaches 2.1 — meaning all Bitcoin holders are sitting on an average gain of 110%. This level is historically associated with bull cycle expansion phases, not yet peak zones.
The "double catalyst" effect of 2024
The market is simultaneously pricing in two catalysts for 2024: the likely spot ETF approval in January and the April halving. The combination of both — growing institutional demand and reduction of new supply — has never been observed in Bitcoin's history.
What this data does not tell us
The simultaneity of two positive catalysts can generate over-anticipation. Markets tend to "sell the news" after "buying the rumour," especially when expectations are this high.