Bitcoin has crossed the $34,000 mark for the first time since May 2022 — a 108% gain from the November 2022 low of $15,500. This move coincides with intensifying anticipation of SEC approval for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The catalyst: the ETF window narrows
The SEC has until January 10, 2024 to rule on the first wave of spot ETF applications. Several signals suggest a high probability of approval: the August 29 Grayscale ruling that forced the SEC to reconsider its position, and active discussions between the SEC and asset managers reported by Bloomberg.
Market structure strengthens
According to Glassnode, bitcoins available on exchanges continue to decline — from 2.8 million to 2.3 million BTC since the start of the year. This reduction in supply available for sale, combined with growing demand, creates a favourable imbalance.
Institutional interest materialises
Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures reaches $3.9 billion — its highest level since November 2021. This level of institutional player interest (who use the CME as a hedging and positioning tool) is a signal of returning institutional demand.
What this data does not tell us
The market may have already priced in much of the ETF anticipation. If the SEC decision is delayed or negative, a significant correction is possible.