Definition
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) measures the average profit or loss on Bitcoin outputs at the moment they are spent on-chain. Specifically, it compares the price at which coins were received (acquisition price) to the price at which they are moved (realization price). A SOPR above 1.0 indicates outputs are being spent at a profit; below 1.0 indicates a loss. Developed by Glassnode, SOPR serves as a macro-level indicator of investor sentiment, capturing whether holders are predominantly realizing gains or losses during any given period. This metric aggregates behavior across the entire network.
How to calculate it / How to read it
SOPR is calculated by dividing the USD value of Bitcoin outputs at spending time by their USD value at receipt time. Mathematically: SOPR = (Current Price × Output Size) / (Historical Price × Output Size). Readings above 1.0 suggest profitable exits; below 1.0 suggest loss-taking. Values near 1.0 indicate minimal profit or loss realization. Sustained SOPR above 1.5 historically signals euphoric conditions with widespread gain-taking. Conversely, SOPR below 0.8 suggests capitulation phases. Daily, weekly, and cumulative readings exist, allowing analysts to assess both short-term and long-term holder behavior patterns across multiple timeframes.
Historical signals
During Bitcoin's 2021 bull market peak, SOPR reached extreme highs above 2.0, according to Glassnode data, coinciding with maximum euphoria and profit-taking. In the subsequent 2022 bear market, SOPR declined below 0.9, reflecting widespread loss realization as prices fell sharply. Recovery phases typically show SOPR gradually returning toward 1.0 as markets stabilize. The metric demonstrated notable predictive value during 2020–2021, where SOPR extremes often preceded significant market reversals. However, Glassnode notes that SOPR works best within broader analytical frameworks rather than as a standalone signal.
Limitations and caveats
SOPR does not distinguish between large and small holders, treating all outputs equally regardless of transaction size or holder sophistication. Long-term hodlers and short-term traders both influence the metric identically. Additionally, SOPR cannot account for coins held in loss across multiple acquisition dates; it captures only realized behavior. Dust transactions and exchange movements can create noise. CoinMetrics research indicates SOPR effectiveness varies across market cycles—performing better during volatile periods than steady states. Furthermore, on-chain metrics including SOPR should never be interpreted in isolation; they require context from macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and technical analysis.