Definition
Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH) are cohorts of Bitcoin addresses segmented by the age of their holdings. Addresses holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days are classified as LTH; those holding for less than 155 days are STH. This distinction, tracked by on-chain analysis firms, reveals behavioral patterns across market cycles. LTH typically represent conviction holders and strategic investors, while STH often exhibit reactive trading behavior. The 155-day threshold emerged empirically from historical data patterns. Understanding these cohorts provides insight into market sentiment without relying on price alone.
How to calculate it / How to read it
On-chain analysis platforms like Glassnode segment the Bitcoin supply by calculating the age of each UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output). They then categorize holdings: those dormant longer than 155 days count toward LTH supply; remainder toward STH supply. Key metrics include LTH/STH ratio, realized price (average acquisition cost per cohort), and spending patterns. Rising LTH supply signals accumulation conviction; declining LTH supply indicates distribution. STH dominance often precedes volatility. Charts display supply composition over time, allowing analysts to assess holder maturity distribution. These metrics become most meaningful when contextualized within market phases.
Historical signals
Data from Glassnode shows LTH accumulation often follows capitulation events. During 2022's bear market, LTH supply increased substantially despite price decline, suggesting conviction buying by experienced holders. Conversely, STH concentration peaks near local tops, reflecting retail enthusiasm and weakening hands. The LTH Realized Price—average entry cost for long-term holders—has historically acted as resistance or support during price discovery. When price trades below LTH Realized Price, psychological pressure on network sentiment increases. These patterns have repeated across multiple cycles, though causality remains debated within the research community.
Limitations and caveats
On-chain cohorts reflect transaction behavior, not intent. A dormant address may represent lost coins, institutional cold storage, or forgotten wallets—not active conviction. The 155-day threshold is arbitrary; behavior varies within both cohorts. Address clustering and exchange consolidation complicate accuracy; some LTH holdings may actually be exchange reserves. These metrics lag sentiment changes by weeks. Network growth and increasing adoption mean cohort definitions may require periodic recalibration. Additionally, LTH and STH supply percentages should never be used in isolation; context around volatility, macro conditions, and network fees is essential for sound interpretation.