Bitcoin sets a new all-time high at $118,000 this week. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points on July 30 — its second cut of the year — bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%. The macro context: Fed in easing cycle Core PCE for June 2025 came in at 2.3% according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis — its closest value to the 2% target since 2021. This disinflationary trajectory reduces pressure on risk assets. ETF flows reach a monthly record Farside Investors records $4.8 billion in net inflows for July 2025 — a new monthly record. Total AUM exceeds $180 billion. What this data does not tell us An MVRV of 3.6 with ongoing LTH distribution is a structural prudence signal. In previous cycles, these levels preceded peaks by 6 to 12 months.