Bitcoin retreats to $108,000 — down 15% from the all-time high of $126,279 set in late October. This correction coincides with intensifying distribution from historical holders and slowing ETF flows.
On-chain distribution accelerates
Glassnode records the largest bitcoin outflows from long-term addresses since May 2021. LTH Supply declines to 57% — its lowest level since 2020. This distribution level is consistent with cycle peak phases observed in 2017 and 2021, without being a definitive confirmation.
ETF flows decelerate
Farside Investors records slightly negative net flows for two consecutive weeks — the first time since April. This isolated signal does not constitute a trend but warrants attention. Outflows come primarily from smaller ETFs, with BlackRock's IBIT remaining in positive flows.
The macro context complicates
Core PCE inflation for October came in at 2.5% — slightly above expectations. The market is revising downward the number of Fed rate cuts anticipated for 2026. This hawkish revision weighs on risk assets in a context of elevated valuations.
What this data does not tell us
A 15% correction from an ATH is within Bitcoin's historical norm — 20-30% intra-cycle corrections are frequent. The question is whether this correction is an entry point for the continuation of the cycle or the beginning of a trend reversal.