Macroeconomic context of the week
Week 30 of 2025 unfolds in a consolidating global economic backdrop. In the United States, June PCE inflation data (Consumer Price Index excluding energy and food) stands at +2.6% year-over-year, in line with Federal Reserve expectations (Bureau of Economic Analysis). The U.S. equity market (S&P 500) trades near all-time highs with moderate volatility, supported by solid second-quarter corporate earnings.
The U.S. dollar (DXY) is slightly soft at 103.2 points, reflecting a Fed "on hold" after three rate cuts in 2024. In Europe, the ECB maintains an accommodative stance despite residual inflation at 2.4% (Eurostat). International bond markets signal expectations for a prolonged rate-cutting cycle. The geopolitical backdrop remains stable with no major market shocks identified this week.
Monetary policy and rates
The Federal Reserve remains in observation mode after three rate reductions in 2024 (25 basis points each). FOMC Minutes from June indicate governors are actively monitoring employment and inflation data before any further action (FOMC Minutes, June 2025). The federal funds rate stands at 4.25%-4.50%, characterized by economists as "moderately restrictive."
In derivatives markets, odds of a September 2025 rate cut range between 25% and 35%, signaling measured expectations. This Fed pause benefits risk assets like Bitcoin, which partially decouples from real rate movements. The ECB, having initiated its cutting cycle in June 2025 with a first 25 basis-point reduction, creates a monetary divergence favorable to non-correlated assets.
ETF flows and institutional demand
Net flows over the past 7 days on spot Bitcoin ETFs total +$1.24 billion (Farside Investors, week 30). This positive balance reflects sustained institutional absorption, though less dramatic than the January-February 2025 phase (+$4.5B cumulative over 4 weeks). Daily flows remain volatile: +$280M Monday July 21st, -$95M Wednesday July 23rd, +$410M Friday July 25th.
Average daily volume on Bitcoin spot ETFs reaches $890 million, down 12% from the prior 30-day average. This volume softening reflects post-rally consolidation. Derivative products (CBOT Bitcoin futures) record stable open interest at $18.2 billion, with no significant long position accumulation.
On-chain data
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value), synthesizing average holder profit/loss, stands at 1.87 (Glassnode). This level, while above equilibrium (1.0), remains below prior cycle peaks (2.8 reached November 2021 and 2.0 in March 2025). It suggests a "cleansed" market where most holders generate modest profit without extreme euphoria.
Bitcoin blockchain hashrate (computing power deployed) reaches 680 exahashes per second (EH/s), a new all-time high, reflecting miner confidence in network long-term viability (Glassnode). Active addresses (executing at least one transaction) total 847,000 daily, up 3.2% over 30 days. "Long-term holders" (holding over one year) maintain 65% of circulating supply, an indicator of structural accumulation.
Synthesis and signal of the week
Convergence of macroeconomic and on-chain signals paints a NEUTRAL-POSITIVE picture for Bitcoin in week 30 of 2025. Three dynamics underpin this conclusion:
1. Accommodative monetary policy. The Fed's pause and ECB's cutting cycle removal eliminate headwinds from rising real rates. Fiat financing costs ease, reducing the relative appeal of obligation staking.
2. Resilient institutional flows. Despite normal daily volatility, ETF flows remain positive over 7 days (+$1.24B), signaling institutional inflows persist, though at consolidation-phase pace.
3. Healthy on-chain fundamentals. MVRV ratio at 1.87 excludes euphoria, hashrate at peaks demonstrates decentralized confidence, and long-term holder accumulation signals unshaken structural belief.
Frictions remain: 30-day SPX correlation holds at 0.18, reflecting modest sensitivity to equity risk-off cycles. BTC price at $62,807 stabilizes in a consolidation range (support: $60,000, resistance: $65,000) with no clear directional impulse. August 2025 Fed announcements will be decisive for the next signal.
Global signal: NEUTRAL-POSITIVE — sustained institutional accumulation, easing monetary backdrop, but absence of immediate bullish breakout catalyst.