Definition
Bitcoin or numérique, often abbreviated as "Bitcoin realized price," represents the average price at which all bitcoins currently in circulation were last moved on-chain. It's calculated by summing the realized value (USD value at transaction time) of every UTXO (unspent transaction output) and dividing by total supply. This metric differs from market price by anchoring to historical acquisition costs rather than current sentiment. It provides insight into the aggregate cost basis of the network's holders, reflecting whether the market trades above or below the weighted average entry point of bitcoin holders collectively.
How to calculate it / How to read it
Realized price uses blockchain data to track when coins last transacted. For each UTXO, multiply its quantity by the price on the date it was last moved, then sum all these values. Divide the total by 21 million coins. When market price trades above realized price, the network is in unrealized profit; below indicates unrealized loss. The ratio between the two—market cap divided by realized cap—is called MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value). Values above 1.0 suggest overvaluation relative to historical cost basis, while below 1.0 indicates undervaluation.
Historical signals
Research from Glassnode indicates realized price has historically functioned as a dynamic support level during downturns. During the 2017-2018 cycle, price repeatedly bounced near realized price during corrections. In 2022, as bitcoin fell below realized price, on-chain metrics showed long-term holder accumulation increased significantly. Conversely, when MVRV ratios reached extreme highs in previous cycles (above 3.0-4.0), periods of consolidation or correction typically followed, though with variable timing.
Limitations and caveats
Realized price assumes all coins are equivalent and ignores holder intent or time-weighted participation. Coins lost or abandoned distort calculations by remaining at their last-moved price indefinitely. The metric excludes coins from mining genesis blocks and early developments, creating a slight historical bias. It cannot account for staking, wrapped bitcoin, or second-layer holdings. Additionally, realized price reflects past cost basis, not future value or network utility, and should never be used in isolation for decision-making.