Macroeconomic context for the week
Week 38 of 2026 unfolds within a moderate growth and persistent inflation backdrop. In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing Index stands at 49.2 points (Institute for Supply Management), signaling contraction in the manufacturing sector. Annual PCE inflation remains at 2.8% (Bureau of Economic Analysis), slightly above the Fed's 2% target. The US dollar index stabilizes around 103.5 points, showing neither remarkable strength nor weakness.
American equity markets display mixed performance: the S&P 500 is +18.3% YTD (Bloomberg), while the Nasdaq-100 advances +22.1% over the same period. This divergence suggests progressive rotation toward defensive equities. US 10-year yields remain around 3.85%, reflecting uncertainty about rate-cut timing.
Geopolitical context remains tense with trade tensions and non-assured banking stability in Europe. These factors create an environment where non-correlated assets like Bitcoin regain interest among diversified portfolios.
Monetary policy and rates
The Fed maintains its policy rate within the 4.25%-4.50% range (FOMC Minutes, September 2026). At its latest meeting, the committee signaled heightened patience, awaiting clearer inflation data before action. Markets currently price a 35% probability of a cut in December 2026 (CME FedWatch).
The ECB pursues gradual easing with the deposit rate held at 3.25%. This divergence between the Fed (prolonged pause) and ECB (progressive cuts) creates arbitrage opportunities on dollar-denominated risky assets.
Recent statements from Jerome Powell emphasize "data-dependent" approach, meaning each employment or inflation report becomes a major catalyst. This expected volatility makes Bitcoin attractive as a hedge against rate uncertainty.
Anticipation of a Fed ultimately less hawkish than feared earlier in 2026 supports risky assets. Bitcoin, without coupon obligations, indirectly benefits from potentially lower real rates.
ETF flows and institutional demand
Cumulative net flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs total +$8.7 billion since launch in January 2024 (Farside Investors). Over the past 7 days of week 38, inflows reach +$1.2 billion, marking acceleration versus week 37 (-$340 million).
This flow reacceleration suggests renewed institutional interest after consolidation. Ethereum ETFs also record positive flows of +$320 million over 7 days, indicating broadening appetite for digital assets.
Daily volumes on these ETFs stabilize around $2.1 billion, revealing sufficient liquidity for institutional investors. The week saw significant block orders (>$50M per block) from four major managers.
Absence of major regulatory steps this week maintains a reassuring framework for flows. Analysts observe institutions progressively repositioning tactical allocations toward digital assets, anticipating a less restrictive Fed decision.
On-chain data
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value, comparing current capitalization to average acquisition cost) stands at 1.87 (Glassnode). This level indicates moderate valuation: historical holders possess 87% gain on average, a neutral signal showing neither euphoria nor extreme pessimism.
The NVT (Network Value to Transactions, comparable to Bitcoin's P/E ratio) registers 24.5, slightly above historical median of 22, suggesting network value is not overvalued relative to transaction flows.
Global hashrate reaches 680 exahashes per second, near its all-time high (Glassnode), confirming miners continue capacity investment despite moderate profitability. Average transaction fees decline to 8.5 satoshis per byte, reflecting decreasing network congestion.
Active addresses (executing at least one transaction in 24h) total 1.42 million addresses, stable over 30 days. Long-term holder distribution behavior shows net purchases of +45,000 BTC held >1 year over the past 30 days, signaling confidence among patient investors.
Summary and signal for the week
Four analytical pillars converge toward a NEUTRE-POSITIF signal:
1. Macroeconomic: stable growth but persistent inflation creates uncertainty, favorable for value stores. 2. Monetary: Fed in pause, ECB in gradual cuts; Bitcoin benefits from rate confusion. 3. Institutional flows: net reacceleration (+$1.2B/7d) signals return of confidence after consolidation. 4. On-chain: MVRV 1.87 and long-term accumulation suggest stable fundamentals without excess.
Downside risks include unexpected inflation acceleration or hawkish Fed surprise. Bullish catalysts rest on confirmed PCE decline or clear rate-cut signal.
Bitcoin at $77,611 reflects balance between growing institutional appetite and rate uncertainty. Absence of strong directional conviction is appropriate within this macroeconomic uncertainty context.