The United States and China announced a 90-day trade truce on May 12, 2025, suspending the highest tariffs. Bitcoin rebounded from $74,500 to $84,500 in one week — its strongest weekly recovery since November 2024.
The recovery mechanism
The trade truce reduced macro uncertainty that had weighed on all risk assets since early April. The S&P 500 bounced 5% in two sessions. Bitcoin, which had over-corrected relative to its history during liquidity shocks, recovered proportionally faster.
On-chain data confirms support
Glassnode records a resumption of bitcoin outflows from exchanges — accumulation signal — after the inflows observed during the panic week. LTH Supply climbs back to 66%, long-term holders having maintained their positions during the correction.
ETF flows resume
Farside Investors records $1.4 billion in net inflows during truce week — the best level since February. BlackRock's IBIT alone captures $680 million, signalling a return of institutional confidence.
What this data does not tell us
The 90-day truce expires in August 2025. If trade negotiations do not result in a lasting agreement, a new liquidity shock is possible. The resolution of the trade conflict remains the primary macro uncertainty for Bitcoin in 2025.