Macroeconomic context of the week
The week of February 18, 2026 unfolds within a contrasted macroeconomic environment. US equity indices display mixed resilience: the S&P 500 oscillates near record levels without clear directional conviction (Bloomberg). American inflation persists at elevated levels, with annual CPI around 2.8% (Bureau of Economic Analysis), above the Fed's 2% target. 10-year Treasury yields stabilize near 4.2%, reflecting arbitrage between growth expectations and persistent inflation risks.
The US dollar remains strong but consolidates after three months of sustained gains. Global economy shows softening signs: manufacturing PMIs in the eurozone and Asia contract slightly, signaling reduced demand (Bloomberg). Emerging markets remain volatile, particularly in East Asia. Against this backdrop, risk assets benefit from modest sentiment correction, but without major conviction shifts.
Monetary policy and rates
Fed signals softened slightly this week. FOMC minutes from February 18 reveal several governors favor a wait-and-see stance: the Fed emphasizes the need to "observe data" before future rate moves (FOMC Minutes). The US policy rate remains unchanged at 4.00%-4.25%, held steady since December 2025. Market pricing shows 35% probability of a rate cut before December 2026, down from 45% four weeks prior.
This softer-than-feared orientation supports risk assets. Bitcoin, as a non-yield-generating asset highly sensitive to real rates, benefits from reduced attractiveness of bonds. The ECB, less restrictive than the Fed, maintains rates at 3.00% and envisions gradual cuts (Bloomberg). This divergence favors assets uncorrelated to US real rates. Market expectations now embed a slower monetary normalization cycle, supporting Bitcoin demand context.
ETF flows and institutional demand
Bitcoin spot ETF flows reversed course after two weeks of net outflows. This week, net inflows reached +$840 million over seven days (Farside Investors), driven by Asian and European allocations. US ETFs show neutral balance (-$12 million), reflecting consolidation after January 2026 outflows.
Spot Bitcoin ETF trading volume averages $2.4 billion daily, an 8% increase week-over-week. Long and short ETFs show a 3:1 ratio favoring long positions, indicating cautious institutional confidence. Year-to-date 2026 cumulative inflows total +$4.2 billion, versus +$8.1 billion for the same period in 2025 (Farside Investors). This moderate growth suggests institutional demand progresses but without spectacular acceleration. Asset managers maintain existing allocations rather than drastically increase exposure.
On-chain data
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) stands at 1.87 (Glassnode), positioning the market in neutral-slightly optimistic territory. This metric compares market capitalization to cumulative value at last transaction. A ratio around 1.8-2.0 historically indicates markets without major speculative excess.
The NVT (Network Value to Transactions), similar to price-to-sales for equities, shows 26.8, retreating over two weeks after correction (Glassnode). Network hashrate remains stable at 650 exahashes/second, confirming absence of mining capitulation. Daily active addresses number 1.24 million, maintaining intermediate levels suggesting moderate retail participation. Long-term holders control 63% of circulating supply, stable over three months, indicating strong conviction among long-term holders and elevated volatility from speculative positions.
Synthesis and weekly signal
This week's overall signal: NEUTRE-POSITIF. Three elements converge favorably: (1) gradual Fed signal softening reducing valuation pressures; (2) modest institutional flow recovery, particularly in Asia; (3) stable on-chain networks without mining stress. However, three limitations temper optimism: (1) institutional inflows remain below 2025 pace; (2) inflation persists above target, limiting rapid rate cuts; (3) risk asset correlations (S&P 500) strengthen slightly to 0.32 over 30 days (Bloomberg), reducing diversification benefit.
The $78,916 price reflects healthy consolidation after January volatility. The $28.2 billion 24h volume and 58.2% BTC dominance attest relative market stability. Traders should monitor two key catalysts: PCE inflation figures on February 28 and Fed signals for April 2026.