Bitcoin retreated to $57,800 — down 20% from the March peak of $73,700. The primary identified selling pressure: the start of Mt.Gox repayments, the exchange hacked in 2014 that must return approximately 140,000 BTC to its creditors.
Mt.Gox: 10 years of legal proceedings
Mt.Gox was the world's largest Bitcoin exchange until its hack in 2014, which resulted in the loss of 850,000 BTC. After a decade of legal proceedings, the trustee announced the start of repayments in July 2024. Creditors will receive approximately 140,000 BTC — valued at around $8 billion at current prices.
The selling pressure question
The market's concern is creditor behaviour: will they immediately sell their BTC? Several factors mitigate this pressure: creditors have waited 10 years and are likely strong believers, some have sold their claims to specialised funds that won't sell immediately, and repayments are spread over several months.
The macro context stabilises
Meanwhile, inflation data continues to improve in the United States. June CPI came in at 3.0% — its lowest level since March 2021. The market is beginning to price in a first Fed rate cut in September.
What this data does not tell us
The actual impact of Mt.Gox on price depends on the individual behaviour of thousands of creditors — a variable impossible to model precisely.