Three weeks after the fourth halving on April 19, Bitcoin is stabilising around $62,400 — down 15% from the March all-time high of $73,700. The post-halving phase follows a classic pattern: consolidation, miner adjustment, waiting for the next catalyst.
The hashrate adjustment
According to CoinMetrics, the Bitcoin network hashrate fell 8% in the two weeks following the halving — less efficient miners having shut down their machines. This adjustment is smaller than corrections seen during previous halvings (2020: -20%, 2016: -15%), reflecting a more mature and better-capitalised mining industry.
ETFs continue to absorb
Despite price consolidation, Farside Investors records positive net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs — approximately $200 million per week. This flow, though below March peaks, maintains structural institutional demand exceeding post-halving new production of 450 BTC/day.
The on-chain signal: holder patience
LTH Supply holds at 66% according to Glassnode — long-term holders have not capitulated to post-halving selling pressure. This conviction level is consistent with accumulation phases observed after previous halvings.
What this data does not tell us
The three previous halvings were all followed by significant further rallies, but with delays of 6 to 18 months. Patience is structurally required in this type of market configuration.