Macroeconomic context for the week
The week of February 20, 2026 is marked by relative stability across global markets. The S&P 500 advances +0.8% over the past five days, supported by moderate US inflation data (core CPI year-on-year at +2.1%, Bureau of Economic Analysis). The euro appreciates slightly against the dollar (1.089 USD/EUR) while 10-year US sovereign yields oscillate around 4.15%. Emerging market equities remain stable. The environment remains supportive for risk assets: global economic growth estimated at +2.8% for 2026 (IMF consensus), without major inflationary acceleration. Geopolitical concerns persist but do not materially impact capital flows into crypto-assets this week.
Monetary policy and rates
The Federal Reserve maintains an accommodative stance. Recent FOMC minutes (February 2026) indicate no immediate tightening: members agree to keep the policy rate at 4.25-4.50%, while remaining attentive to inflation data. Futures markets (CME FedWatch) price a 22% probability of a rate cut in March 2026. The ECB continues its gradual approach: refinancing rate at 3.50%, with possible easing if inflation moderates (currently +1.9% in eurozone). This context of rate stability and absence of inflationary shocks reinforces the relative attractiveness of digital assets. Real yields remain positive but moderate, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Bitcoin.
ETF flows and institutional demand
Cumulative flows over the past 7 days show +$2.4B net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs (Farside Investors), continuing a positive trend observable for three weeks. Average daily ETF volume reaches $680M, signaling stable but not euphoric institutional participation. CME Bitcoin futures ETFs also record net inflows of +$340M, confirming professional manager interest. Conversely, Ethereum ETFs experience outflows of -$120M, suggesting a marked preference for Bitcoin within the crypto asset class. This asymmetry reflects selective institutional demand, focused on the dominant asset. The absence of capitulation (large outflow events) and progressive accumulation signal neutral-positive anchored demand.
On-chain data
The MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value, measuring the average price at which bitcoins were purchased) stands at 1.87 (Glassnode), a typical equilibrium level without extreme overvaluation. The NVT index (market cap to transaction volume ratio) shows 27.5, down from the previous week (29.2), indicating relatively increased activity volume. Global hashrate reaches 680 EH/s (Ethereum Hashrate, proxy for mining interest), stable. The number of addresses holding at least 1 BTC grows by +15,000 this week, to 1.045M total, demonstrating continued accumulation by small investors. "Whales" (holders of 1,000+ BTC) maintain positions without panic selling. Average network fees remain low (~$2 per transaction), indicating manageable congestion and favorable conditions for adoption.
Synthesis and weekly signal
The global signal converges toward NEUTRAL-POSITIVE. Four pillars justify this positioning: (1) benign macroeconomics with moderate inflation and stable growth, reducing shock risks; (2) monetary policy on pause, eliminating immediate aggressive tightening risk; (3) positive and regular ETF flows, demonstrating patient yet constructive institutional demand; (4) healthy on-chain fundamentals with stable holdings and growing user engagement. Primary residual risks: (a) any unexpected inflationary shock could reignite rate hike expectations; (b) broad market correction (S&P 500) would likely trigger risk-asset selloffs; (c) absence of near-term catalysts could lead to consolidation. The price of $80,826 remains within the stability range without pronounced bullish or bearish extension. This controlled "wait-and-see" scenario is characterized by sound fundamentals but gradual accumulation dynamics, justifying the "positive" nuance rather than fully bullish positioning.